It was a pretty hit or miss week for me.

You don’t have to look much further than my (original) upset pick to see that some of my predictions were prophetic: LeSean McCoy torched the Lions, Aaron Rodgers torched the Bills, and Chris Johnson, Eli Manning, and Owen Daniels all sucked. I was 5 out of 6 in those picks, and based on Jason Snelling’s stats, I would’ve definitely been right about my Michael Turner prediction if he hadn’t gotten all gimpy in the 2nd quarter. (Other notable hits: Packers destroying Buffalo, Ronnie Brown struggling, Donald Driver scoring, Kyle Orton outperforming Brett Favre, Dennis Dixon making Pittsburgh miss Big Ben.)

But you also don’t have to look much further than my eliminator picks to know that some of my predictions were laughable. Of course the Packers won, but if you lost this week by not picking the Packers, you deserved that. But the other 4 picks were awful for eliminator world. 2 of them were wrong, and 2 of them only won by 2 points. Ideally, I want to recommend the blowouts so I’m not personally responsible for any of my league mates suffering a heart attack. (Other notable misses: claiming Ray Rice would be the only running back to produce in a matchup that included Jahvid Best and Frank Gore. Wow. That was just bad. Like, really bad.)

I take solace in the fact that the Chiefs have started the season out 2-0. For the first time in at least 5 years, I actually have a reason to stay interested in the NFL standings, which I think helped dull the pain from getting crushed by Gideon this past week.

But it’s nothing compared to what happened in one of our matchups. This week’s bad luck shout out goes out to Mr. Travelpiece. Tailfeather was up by nearly 20 points going into the Monday night game, and was still up by a few points with two minutes left in the fourth quarter before Frank Gore scored a TD near the end of the game. I can’t even imagine how that felt for Travelpiece. The only person who can sort of relate is O’Neill. Two weeks ago on Monday night, O’Neill was down by maybe 2 points as the final game was drawing to a close. He had Philip Rivers still on his team facing his beloved Chiefs. Naturally, I was texting Alex the whole game, and as it came down to 4th down with the Chargers driving in an attempt to tie the game, O’Neill had to decide whether to root for his fantasy team or his favorite team. Ultimately, he decided to root for both and hope Rivers would score the TD and the Chiefs would win in OT, but he probably would have immediately changed his mind if they had actually scored. In Travelpiece’s case, he had to have been excited that Gore scored because it gave them a chance to force the game into overtime, but he also had to have been conflicted about the fact that one of his favorite players just caused him to lose his fantasy matchup. And what really sucks is that it didn’t even send the game into overtime. They might as well have not scored and lost by a score of 22-14 and at least allowed Travelpiece to win (and allowed a bunch of us to win our NO -4.5 bets…).

So, Travelpiece, I hope you have better luck this week, but I sincerely hope that it’s your fantasy team and not your favorite team that has the success. Go Chiefs! Hopefully I have better luck too. Let’s get to the Eliminator picks:

In three of the five games last week, I ignored week 1 and just based my pick on what I thought had to happen. I thought Dallas and Minnesota had to win, and I thought St. Louis had to lose, and I ended up just barely being right on one of them. So this week I’ll be using my bigger sample size to my advantage to hopefully go 5-0.

#5. Washington over St. Louis

I don’t actually condone this pick at all, because I hate picking road teams and I absolutely, positively hate picking the Redskins. I’m pretty sure Washington is the reason I’ve been eliminated in two of the past three years. I still have no idea how the hell they lost to the Lions last year. And you know what, I have a sneaking suspicion that a lot of people will be wondering how the hell they lost to the Rams this year. The stats say Washington should win handily. St. Louis failed to move the ball against Oakland (who allowed 38 points to Tennessee) or Arizona (who allowed 41 points to Atlanta). And after struggling to run the ball in week one, Washington realized last week that the passing game is their best option and have become a team that could potentially win games by a score of 42-10. But they’re Washington, so they won’t ever do that. No matter how good they look on paper, it never works out, which is why I don’t care what the stats say, I will be disappointed in you if you pick this game.

#4. Minnesota over Detroit

Wherefore art thou, Brett? Peterson’s been great. The defense has been great. This 0-2 start is all on Brett Favre. I mean, 2 interceptions on the goal line and a fumble for a TD in his own end zone? That’s a 21 point swing in a 7 point game. I think playing the Lions is just the cure they need. Detroit is an improved team and they’ve at least been in their first 2 games right down to the end, but I think Brett will avoid completely shooting himself in the foot and that the Vikings will be able to contain Best much better than Philly did.

#3. Cincinnati over Carolina

My roommate and I like to predict what the spreads will be before they’re announced, and this one ended up being the game on which we differed the most. I had Cincinnati by 2.5 and he had the Bengals by 9.5. When I told him my prediction, he kind of flipped out and made me justify why I had it so low. I told him Vegas has no idea what to make of Cincy, and while they probably think the Bengals are a touchdown better than the Panthers, they’re going to award the Panthers 3 points for being the home team. Final line? Bengals by 3.5. I win. But we both agreed that the Bengals are a better team than people think and they’ll probably win by double digits. And that was before the Panthers decided to make Clausen they’re starter.

#2. New England over Buffalo

The Bills are averaging 176 yards per game right now. Good for last place in the NFL by 65 yards per game. They’re also in last place with 8.5 points per game. That’s 17 points in 2 games. You know how many of the other 31 teams have scored at least 17 points in a game already? 25. If they expect to win any time soon, I really doubt it’s going to be against a pissed off Patriots team in New England.

#1. Baltimore over Cleveland

If the Ravens don’t score more than 10 points against the Browns in their home opener, you have my word that I will immediately drop Joe Flacco. And we all know that Cleveland won’t score more than 14 points against the Ravens defense unless Joshua Cribbs returns 3 touchdowns.

Also, I’ve decided I’m discontinuing the suggestions for the seven losers each week, but instead, I’ll be offering succinct advice to three owners each week and including a new wrinkle instead:

The Commish’s NFL Upset of the Week:

In order to qualify, the team must be at least a 4 point underdog who I expect to win outright. This week, it’s the Denver Broncos (+6.5). It’s virtually impossible to shut down Peyton Manning, but the Broncos have a good enough secondary to limit him enough to keep their offense in the game. And not to make light of what appears to have been suicide by a Broncos wide receiver, but events like that tend to really bring a team together for at least one week. Considering they already have one of the best home records over the past decade, I think the emotional push will be enough to push the Broncos ahead of a Colts team that is prone for a letdown game.

This week’s advice…

Dincher’s Dolphins: Don’t count your chickens.

You’ve had a relatively decent amount of success thus far, but I hope you realize that your opponents have scored 50 less points this season than anyone else’s. You’re not going to continue to win games by an average of 52 points per game unless you get some kind of standout wide receiver instead of a Dexter McClusterf**k of back up fantasy guys.

Montgomery’s Rams: Enjoy it while it lasts.

You’ve doled out a few heartbreaking losses so far, but you really don’t have the firepower to win on any sort of regular basis. You might want to learn from Yelen’s example and swap one of those stud running backs for a little bit of depth.

Nelson’s Steelers: You owe everyone associated with the Steelers defense a bear hug.

Every single sack, fumble, interception, and kick return yard was crucial on your way to a 3 point victory. I still remember when Shaver got screwed over by the Packers D getting -8, but I cannot recall a time where a defense single-handedly willed a fantasy team to victory. I mean, when your defense can outscore a running back that rushed for 3 touchdowns, that just isn’t even fair. Here’s hoping the Buccaneers miraculously find a way to at least score 3 points this week.

******Games of the Week******

~~~~~~~Blowout of the Week~~~~~~~

Dincher’s Dolphins (2-0) over Damn’s Bills (0-2)

For one more week, Dincher will keep up the average margin of victory of 52 points per game, but I think he’ll quickly find himself sitting at 3-2 after that. This week, however, will be a disaster for Damn. Andre Johnson is gimpy and Jay Cutler is playing in a prime time game which always ends poorly. Based on what Matt Forte and LeSean McCoy have been able to do to Detroit, there’s a reasonable possibility that Adrian Peterson breaks the record for single game all-purpose yards this week against them. Like, seriously, Peterson might single-handedly outscore Damn’s entire team. And no, that’s not an attempted jinx, I’m literally giddy about the possibility that Peterson rushes for more than 300 yards this week.

Final score: Mia 137-81.

~~~~~~~Upset of the Week~~~~~~~

O’Neill’s Buccaneers (0-2) over Travelpiece’s 49ers (1-1)

Five reasons:

1: Jahvid ain’t the Best.

The Vikings accidentally let Ronnie Brown break a 51 yard run when they brought the house trying to force a safety. Other than that, they haven’t allowed a rush of 12 or more yards in their 2 games. And after the way they shut down Reggie Bush and the Dolphins gadget plays, I can’t imagine they’ll struggle with the screen passes to Jahvid Best. I think the forecasters are severely overreacting to Best’s performance in Week 2. He’s projected to get 22 points, but I bet he doesn’t even get 12.

2: Flow like a Rivers.

My boy Phil had minimal difficulty picking apart Kansas City and Jacksonville, which have underrated secondaries if you ask me, and should have an even easier day gobbling up the Seahawks defense, especially since Ryan Mathews is banged up. He’s projected to get 25.5 points. I don’t think 36 is out of the question.

3: He’s not your guar-DeAngelo.

Yes, these puns are getting atrocious in a hurry. To make up for it, not only am I going to predict Williams’ fantasy point output, but I’ll forecast when he gets them. ESPN has him down for 15.5 points. I’ve got him down for 10. 6 in the 1st quarter, 1 in the 3rd quarter, and 3 in the 4th when they’re down by 2 touchdowns and decide to throw a couple of screen passes.

4: A rolling stone gathers lots and lots of Moss.

Like I said in my eliminator picks, I wouldn’t want to play the Patriots right now. ESPN has Moss with 73 yards and 2 TDs….I’m guessing it’s closer to 173 yards.

5: A bridge too Favre.

There’s too much pressure on those 40 year old shoulders. The Vikings win the game, but it’s the Adrian Peterson show. There’s no way he gets 25 fantasy points, even against the Lions. I wonder if the Vikings can trade for Kevin Kolb right after the game on Sunday and then have him ready to start after the bye week…

X-Factor: Charles in Charge

ESPN has Jamaal getting 11.1 points, but I have this crazy feeling that this is his week. I’m talking a 150 yard, 2 TD, 30 fantasy point, I jizz in my pants kind of week. I have nothing yet this season to base this feeling on, and in fact, it’s a stupid gut feeling because Todd Haley hasn’t exactly made it a secret that he doesn’t much like Jamaal Charles. But I think he makes the most of every opportunity he gets this week.

X-Factor #2: Can you smell that Aromashodu?

Nobody quite knows what’s going on with the kid right now, but there’s no way the Bears sit out their best wide receiver in a Monday night game. Last week was the message from Lovie Smith to Devin. Now it’s Devin’s turn to reply. And hell, if he does anything at all, it increases O’Neill’s projected total since he’s currently slated for one catch for ten yards. Talk about an overreaction.

Final score: TB 146-129.

~~~~~~~Game of the Week~~~~~~~

Gideon’s Bears (1-1) vs. Meyers’ Cowboys (1-1)

In light of last week’s trade, this is the game that intrigues me the most. My hope is that some combination of LeSean McCoy, DeSean Jackson, and Terrell Owens decides the outcome of this one. Let’s see what the breakdown thinks…

QB: This is one of the only instances over the course of the season where I’ll think the guy without Aaron Rodgers is in the better shape. I think Tom Brady is going ape shit this weekend. Think 400 yards, 4 TDs, and 40 fantasy points. Any guess who my eliminator pick is? Aaron Rodgers does pretty darn well under the spotlight, so I expect him to tally around 30 points, but that won’t be enough to beat Brady. Edge: Gideon.

RBs: I’m going to assume that Michael Turner is good to go, and I’m going to assume that goes well. Granted, it was against Peterson and Frank Gore, but the Saints have done pretty poorly against the run thus far, and I expect similar results against Turner. However, Jacksonville has been just as bad, so I think McCoy’s numbers will virtually match Turner’s, making them a wash. That leaves us with a couple of Jacksons who weren’t expected to be starters at the beginning of the year, and a couple of back-ups who really should be the starters. I’m giving the edge to Meyers, though, because his Jackson and back-up are going up against significantly more favorable rushing matchups. Edge: Meyers.

WRs: Count me among the 98% of the nation that doesn’t think Clausen makes the Panthers passing attack any more intriguing. Consequently, I think Steve Smith has a sub-par game, even against a sub-par secondary like Cincinnati. On the other side of that same field, I think it’s about time for Batman to make his triumphant return to fantasy relevance. In their first 2 games, Carolina did very poorly against what I would consider the 2nd best receiving option on each team, and neither of those teams was all that good. I think TO and Ocho each has a 100 yard game this weekend. Between the other two guys in this matchup, I would say Hakeem Nicks is a little inferior to DeSean Jackson, and he becomes even more inferior when comparing their opponents. Nicks is facing the top passing defense, while DeSean goes up against the 29th best. Significant edge: Meyers.

TE: Kellen Winslow has been alright so far, but he certainly hasn’t been Visanthe Shiancoe. Considering how bad Favre has been and how good Shiancoe has been, I’m led to believe that no Viking wide receiver has made a reception yet. Can anyone confirm this? Edge: Meyers.

D/K: I know Gideon is looking to change his defense for this week, and if he goes with my suggestion, I think it pays dividends. I also think the Saints struggle a little bit against the Falcons this week. Also, this is the last time in the breakdown that I will even pretend to reference the kicker comparison. Current edge: Meyers. Potential edge: Gideon.

Result: Unless Brady outscores Rodgers by 40 points or unless Turner doesn’t play and Meyers is unable to get a replacement into his line-up, I’m finding it hard to believe that Gideon can pull off the win. But, let’s not forget I’m higher on TO than most, lower than Steve Smith than most, and never even remotely believed in Felix Jones. I honestly think Gideon would be better off playing Jacoby Jones, but I’ve been pimping JJ since 5 minutes after the draft, so that shouldn’t come as a shock to anyone. It should be a closer game than my prediction.

Final score: Dal 127-103.

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