Fantasy Pick Ups Du Jour

On September 8th, 1992, I woke up at 7:00 AM, showered, got dressed, ate some French toast, posed for way too many pictures in front of the house, and left for my very first day of kindergarten. Since then, I’ve been blessed enough to finish high school, graduate from college, and spend a year and a half working for the man. Two days before my first day of kindergarten, Brett Favre embarked on a journey that finally came to a close this past weekend. Say what you want about him (who hasn’t?), but when this wild ride mercifully comes to an end and all the dust settles, Favre will go down as one of the most memorable quarterbacks of all time. Maybe these past 5 years have permanently tainted his legacy, and maybe we need these next 5 years to forget about him until he gets inducted into the hall of fame, but there’s little doubt that he will be one of those guys that we end up telling our grandchildren about. Maybe I’m crazy, but I think we’ll miss him when he’s gone for good. At the very least, ESPN and John Madden will. 

Aside from the streak coming to an end, it was a fairly uneventful weekend. Considering the Sal Alosi tripping scandal is the only other thing in the NFL that anyone seems interested in talking about, I’m going to use this time to look ahead to Week 15 and beyond. If you’re in a bind and need to make a desperation play; if your roster is full of Patriots who won’t be playing the last 2 weeks of the season, or if you have the roster space to grab someone “just in case;” here are 25 guys owned in less than 25% of leagues that could play a key role in the fantasy playoffs:

25 Under 25

Mike Thomas (24.8%)

He certainly didn’t do you any favors if you played him last week, but with 2 games remaining against the worst pass defenses in the league, he’s likely to redeem himself down the stretch.

Tony Moeaki (23.9%)

If Cassel’s (lack of) appendix keeps him out of any more games, his value plummets considerably, but if Cassel is back, there’s a good chance Moeaki ends up as a top 10 TE the rest of the way.

Tashard Choice (22.3%)
Jon Kitna (18.4%)

Their season is finished, so it’s highly unlikely Romo will make an end-of-season cameo, and I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys shut down Felix Jones in the near future to avoid any sort of devastating knee injuries. Dallas is still playing for Garrett’s job, however, and scoring fairly well in the process, so these replacements should have considerable value.

Louis Murphy (21.3%)
Jacoby Ford (11.9%)
Jason Campbell (6.7%)

I don’t exactly foresee the Raiders making a run to the playoffs, and if they do, it will probably make Darren McFadden owners very happy, but with slim playoff hopes and games remaining against Denver, Indianapolis, and Kansas City, I think the passing game should have a decent three week stretch.

Keiland Williams (17.4%)

Ryan Torain has proven himself about as capable of staying on the field as Reggie Bush. And even if Torain somehow makes it through the next 3 weeks, Keiland figures to get some work as a 3rd down back.

Jeff Reed (15.0%)

He hasn’t missed a field goal since the Steelers cut him. Interestingly enough, Suisham (2.3%) hasn’t missed since the Steelers signed him.

Matt Hasselbeck (14.3%)

Who he’ll be throwing to is anybody’s best guess, but with the NFC West still completely up for grabs and absolutely no one in Seattle who can reliably rush the ball, there are much worse QB options. That reminds me…

Anthony Dixon (9.3%)
Alex Smith (6.7%)
Josh Morgan (2.5%)

You don’t want any of these guys this week against the Chargers, but if your playoffs go into week 16 and 17, they should score liberally against the Rams and Cardinals. Morgan’s value increases from worthless to slightly less than worthless with Alex Smith being back, because he might accidentally score a touchdown, but the Anthony Dixon recommendation isn’t completely based in dumb luck, as he and Westbrook have been perfectly splitting touches the past 2 weeks.

Rashad Jennings (13.2%)

He has a touchdown and at least 50 yards in each of the past 3 weeks, but you want to pick him up on the off chance that the Jaguars beat the Colts this weekend, clinch the AFC South, and rest Maurice Jones-Drew for the final two weeks of the season. And trust me, you want the guy getting the bulk of the carries against the Redskins and Texans.

Cardinals D/ST (12.4%)

They’re a top 5 option against the Panthers this weekend, and they’re at least a reasonable play in the final two weeks against Dallas and San Francisco.

Mohamed Massaquoi (10.0%)

Kind of sad that he’s the 2nd best fantasy option in Cleveland at this point, but he stands to score at least once or twice in a slew of games in which the Browns will be primarily playing from behind.

Billy Cundiff (9.6%)

He’s hit 15 of 16 field goals since Week 4. At least he’s a better option than Rob Bironas these days.

Jordan Shipley (4.0%)

There are very few slot receivers in the league that you can count on, but if you’re desperate for 3 catches for 25 yards and a slim chance at a touchdown, Shipley’s your man.

Blair White (3.5%)
Javarris James (2.8%)

If Austin Collie continues to miss games, White and James continue to be worth starting in virtually all formats, as the Colts are fighting for a playoff spot instead of backing into one for the first time in several seasons.

Anthony Armstrong (3.4%)

He’s led the Redskins in receiving yards in 4 of their past 6 games, so you can probably rely on him to get at least half a dozen targets. Whether he does anything with them is a different story.

Bo Scaife (3.3%)
Kerry Collins (1.3%)

Collins has thrown for 8 TDs this season, and Scaife has been on the receiving end of 3 of them. Ed Dickson didn’t do a thing against the Texans last week, and they’re STILL allowing the most fantasy points per game to opposing tight ends. Both are solid options this weekend, and may very well have some value in their final games against Indianapolis and Kansas City.

Earl Bennett (2.7%)

Picking a Bears wide receiver is like trying to pick a Packers running back, but if you insist on owning someone facing the Vikings, Jets, and Packers to finish the season, I think you’re better off with Earl Bennett than Johnny Knox.

Eliminator Suggestions:

If you’re still alive in your suicide pool, it’s hardly thanks to me. After another 3-1 week, my record for the season is now 43-13. It’s not great, but it’s damn sure good enough to win the NFC West. I went off the board from my suggestions this past week because I had already used the best four and ended up lucking out a win with the Jaguars. Three of these four picks are sure to win, and I hope you’re able to avoid the dud.

#4. Indianapolis over Jacksonville

This marks the 5th time I’ve recommended the Colts in this section under the “Peyton Manning won’t let them lose this game” theory. I’m pretty sure they’ve lost every time I put them in here, and considering the Colts have knocked my Chiefs out of the playoffs in 3 of our past 4 trips to the playoffs (which encompasses 16 years of sadness), I’d be perfectly happy if I were jinxing them. But seriously, there’s no way the Colts lose this game, right? They’re effectively eliminated from the playoffs if they lose this game. If Peyton can’t pull it together for this one, I’ll have to start wondering whether or not he’ll break Favre’s streak. Colts 30-24.

#3. Atlanta over Seattle

Strange but true: Only 2 of Seattle’s 13 games have been decided by less than 12 points, each of which was an early season win over a team which has evolved into a legitimate contender (San Diego and Chicago). The moral of that story is that in more than the majority of their games, they’ve either been blown out or they’ve won in blow out fashion. Do you honestly think they’ll blow out the Falcons? (Sidebar: I’m sure Atlanta is well aware that if they lose this game, there’s a strong possibility they’ll be going back on the road with a 12-4 record to Seattle on wild card weekend to face the 8-8 Seahawks. Forget helmet to helmet hits, this is the problem Goodell should have fixed mid-season.) Falcons 28-14.

#2. Tampa Bay over Detroit

Josh Freeman is 0-5 against teams with winning records, and 8-0 against teams with losing records. The Lions definitely have a losing record…and they’ll be starting Drew Stanton again. Sometimes it’s just that simple. Bucs 31-6

#1. San Diego over San Francisco

I don’t know what the power ranking “experts” are looking at when they rank San Diego 12th, but I have them 3rd right now. You may think that’s crazy, but if you put them on a neutral field against any team other than New England or Atlanta, they’re absolutely the favorite right now, are they not? You could argue that against the Steelers, Eagles, or Giants it would be a toss-up, but they’re at least a top 6 team. If it weren’t for a few special team screw ups early in the season, they could be sitting at 11-2 or better right now. You want to put that team at home against an NFC West team and not spot the NFC West team 30 points? Ridiculous. Chargers by 9 might be the easiest bet of the entire season. Chargers 42-10.

The Commish’s NFL Upset of the Week

Buffalo (+5) over Miami

This pick didn’t work out so well last week with the Vikings getting routed by the Giants, but I’m still well over .500 with these picks on the season, and it seems like I’ve been picking the Bills in half of those games. I have no idea how the Dolphins beat the Jets while averaging less than 2.5 yards per play, but that won’t fly against the Bills. Stevie Johnson has been fairly invisible since dropping that ball against the Steelers, but I think he makes a grand re-appearance in Miami this weekend against a Dolphins team that simply doesn’t win games at home. It should be a low scoring game as these teams rank worst and 3rd worst in the AFC in scoring, but I like the Bills to win by a Lindell boot. Bills 20-17.

Check back next week when I’ll break down the NFL playoff scenarios with 2 games remaining, and hopefully have something more interesting to write about than a strength and conditioning coach’s knee.

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