Ron Mexico for MVP? Really?
#1. The Redskins secondary is terrible.
Matt Stafford threw for 4 TDs against them. Matt Schaub threw for 500 yards and 3 TDs against them. The only reason opposing quarterbacks aren’t averaging a QB rating of 100+ against them is because of the time Jay Cutler threw the ball to DeAngelo Hall 4 times. Even if the Redskins had a remotely respectable defense, it was raining all night which makes it even more difficult for the defense to find the footing to react to quick moves by guys like Vick and Jackson. Even Jerome Harrison ran for 10 yards per carry and over 100 yards against them. They just weren’t keeping up with anyone in green and white.
#2. Look at who he’s played against.
I don’t particularly like to play the “look at who they’ve played against” card when trying to determine power rankings and whether or not an entire team is better than another entire team, but with individual offensive players, it’s a little more legitimate to take a look at the defenses they’ve competed against. When looking at the Eagles’ schedule, make sure you look at who Michael Vick actually played against, because his ribs injury got him out of playing against the likes of Atlanta and Tennessee. The best team he’s played an entire game against was the Colts in Week 9, they aren’t even in the top 50% of the NFL against the pass, and he had a relatively mediocre game. If he can put up respectable numbers against the Giants and the Bears in the next 2 weeks, I will do a complete 360 and at least say he’s probably worth the hype this year, but let’s wait until he plays more than a couple of full games and plays them against decent teams before we name him Top Dog (abuser) in the NFL.
#3. It was just the capstone to a statistically crazy week.
Prior to this weekend, there were a total of 13 performances by quarterbacks in which they scored 30 or more fantasy points (based on my league’s scoring system), which averages out to 1.44 per week. This weekend there were 9 such games. Every team scored at least 12 points, which hadn’t happened in a week yet this season. In Week 1, there were 585 points scored. Even though there were 4 teams on a bye this week, there were 727 points scored. That’s insane. Last year the average amount of points scored in a game was just over 42, whereas this past week the average was just under 52. I mean, come on: Troy Smith threw for 356 yards and Matt effing Cassel threw for 469 yards and 4 TDs. It was just one of those crazy stat-padding weeks across the board where all the right strengths matched up with all the right weaknesses, culminating in one of the top 5 QBs in the NFC going up against the worst secondary in the NFC on Monday night.
In light of all the hoopla over the Sunday and Monday night games, here are a few things I realized on Sunday afternoon which really flew under the radar:
The Cleveland Browns are possibly the best 3-6 team in the history of the league.
8 of their 9 games have come against potential playoff teams, and they’ve played all of them tough except for one game where they just came out flat and never really had a shot on the road in Colt McCoy’s first career game against a Steelers team coming off a bye and celebrating the triumphant return of their persuasive messiah. The Vikings and 49ers are sitting at 3-6 as well, but they have just been absolutely disappointing, whereas the Browns have played more competitively than any of us expected. If they continue to play with the vigor that we’ve seen thus far, they might be sitting at 8-6 after a 5 game stretch against some very average opponents.
Mark Sanchez and Josh Freeman continue to find ways to win games.
The Jets have not looked good since Week 4, but they’ve managed to go 4-1 since then. Josh Freeman hasn’t thrown for more than 280 yards in a game yet this season, but the Bucs are somehow 6-3. If you’re starting a new franchise today, these guys are going somewhere in the top 6 with Rivers, Rodgers, Matt Ryan, and Joe Flacco, and yet they’re both behind Kyle Orton and Carson Palmer in fantasy point production? If there are 2 changes that need to be made to the quarterback position in fantasy football, it’s that you need to be credited points for wins and that throwing a pick six needs to count against you big time. I say a win is worth 7 points and that the yardage and touchdowns coming from interceptions should count against you just as much as passing yardage and touchdowns count for you. I can’t be the only one who feels this way. Sanchez and Freeman each have 6+ wins and half a dozen or less interceptions, and there is no way they should be ranked behind Carson Palmer’s 2 wins and 11 interceptions, 3 of which have been returned for a TD.
Randy Moss had 1 catch for 26 yards.
In a week where virtually every team had an amazing offensive game, I just wanted to point out what a pathetic game he had in his first affair with the Titans. If you need help in a fantasy league, see if you can’t buy low on Moss, because 4 of his next 5 games are against Jacksonville (29th against the pass), Washington (31st against the pass), and 2 games against the Texans (last in the NFL against the pass). He’s going to have multiple games with multiple touchdowns and 125+ yards in the next few weeks. Having him on your team may be the difference between winning your league and finishing in 8th place.
Power Rankings
It’s been several weeks since I posted my power rankings, so here they are without any commentary. If you’d like to argue my rankings, that’s why you’re allowed to comment, and I encourage it.
Hopelessly out of it:
32. Carolina
31. Cincinnati
30. Buffalo
29. Detroit
28. Denver
27. Dallas
Would be hopelessly out of it if they were in the AFC:
26. Arizona
25. Washington
24. Seattle
23. San Francisco
Definitely going to win a few more games:
22. Cleveland
21. Houston
20. St. Louis
19. Minnesota
Surprisingly still contending:
18. Chicago
17. Kansas City
16. Tampa Bay
15. Jacksonville
14. Miami
13. Tennessee
12. Oakland
They always find a way:
11. San Diego
10. New York Giants
9. Indianapolis
One of them has to make the Super Bowl:
8. New Orleans
7. Green Bay
6. Atlanta
5. Philadelphia
One of them has to win the Super Bowl:
4. Pittsburgh
3. New York Jets
2. Baltimore
1. New England
Eliminator Suggestions:
With those power rankings in mind, let’s see if I can’t recommend some good ones this week. I missed the Cowboys/Giants game last week, but who didn’t? At least I had them at #3 and was able to sell most of you on Tampa and Indy. After last week’s performance, I’m now 32-8. Not half bad. I’ll try to get it up to 36-8, though.
#4. Tennessee vs. Washington
As I said 3 weeks ago: ”I’m late to this party, but Jeff Fisher owns the NFC, and should destroy Washington when they play his Titans in week 11.” It helps that Washington played like a JV squad on Monday night and will also be playing on short rest for this game. This is definitely one of Moss’s aforementioned huge games.
#3. Pittsburgh vs. Oakland
This is me still not buying into Oakland. This is the start of their slide into a 7-9 season. This is a West Coast team playing a 1:00 game. This is Rashard Mendenhall against a pathetic rush defense. This is Pittsburgh wanting to prove they’re a dominant defense regardless of Sunday night’s performance. This is Nnamdi Asomugha playing through pain and trailing Mike Wallace by a step on a couple of deep balls. This is Roethlisberger’s return to excellence. This is not Sparta.
#2. San Diego vs. Denver
I could try to continue to sell you on the fact that home teams following a bye week are now 12-3 this season, but instead I’ll just tell you that as a fan of an AFC West team who’s been forced to watch San Diego win the division for what feels like 67 consecutive seasons, I know that this is a game they will not lose. Everybody else in the gambling world has been struggling immensely with the AFC West, but I’ve been absolutely nailing it since Week 4, including 3 of my 5 upset picks, and not only will San Diego win this game, but they’ll cover the 9.5 spread. Seriously, they’re going to win this thing like 42-17.
#1. New Orleans vs. Seattle
I cannot make heads or tails of this Seahawks team because their performance from week to week is the flip of a coin. What I do know is that they run the ball poorly and they are terrible against the pass. If they have a strength, it’s either when Hasselbeck decides to play well or when Leon Washington returns multiple kickoffs for touchdowns. Unfortunately for Seattle and fortunately for anyone who still has New Orleans available to choose this week, those special teams plays are completely unpredictable and the Saints are one of the best teams in the league against the pass. They are also one of the most proficient passing teams in the league, so they should be able to stop Hasselbeck; the Seahawks run game should stop itself; and Brees should be able to pick apart the defense at will. Did I mention New Orleans is a home team following a bye week?! I won’t get to use that line for another 46 weeks, so enjoy it while it lasts. FYI: New Orleans eliminated me several weeks ago and is more than likely responsible for the eliminator deaths of more people than any other team in the NFL, but if you can ignore the fact that they inexplicably lost to Arizona and Cleveland and damn near lost at home to Carolina, you have to go with them. They’re getting hot and they’re well rested and I wish I had saved them until now.
The Commish’s NFL Upset of the Week:
Buffalo +5.5 @ Cincinnati
Bill Simmons has taken credit for the “Law of Gus” as of late, but I actually tweeted him about it back before Week 2: “A word to the wise, including @sportsguy33 and @MatthewBerryTMR, Gus Johnson is announcing the Jax/SD game. +7.5 sounds pretty good.” Now, I was wrong, and San Diego beat the pants off of Jacksonville, but the games he’s been announcing the past several weeks have all come right down to the wire. I remember turning on the Bills/Chiefs game maybe 2 minutes into the first quarter and realizing that not only was Dexter McCluster not playing, but Gus Johnson was announcing the game. Had I known those 2 things 10 minutes earlier, I would’ve bet many many dollars on Buffalo +7.5. Oh well. If you don’t know who Gus Johnson is, you should be ashamed of yourself, and you should watch at least these 3 clips, if not every single Gus Johnson clip on youtube:
If that shit doesn’t get you pumped about college basketball, especially the 3rd one when Crawford hit the 3 at the end of the 1st overtime, you just don’t have a pulse and probably shouldn’t read anything that I have to write between January and April.
Well guess what? Gus Johnson is announcing this game, so it’s all but guaranteed to be a nail biter. Even before I knew that, I was strongly considering making this my upset pick just because of how much I hate Carson Palmer. But then I was thinking this might be a classic game for Carson Palmer to pad his stats against a bad team to somehow end the season as a top 6 QB in the AFC. But I gotta go with Gus. I can already hear it: 15 seconds to play…Fitzpatrick’s going to have to hurry…he drops back…fires…for the end ZONE…AND STEVE JOHNSON MAKES THE LEAPING GRAB!!!…The Bills take a 3 point lead with 7 seconds to play!…*insert Gus Johnson cackle*
Fantasy League Standings:
#1. Miller’s Chiefs (7-3) 1173.2 points
#2. Montgomery’s Rams (7-3) 1081 points
#3. Duncan’s Packers (6-4) 1144.6 points
#4. Nelson’s Steelers (6-4) 1057.1 points
#5. Garland’s Giants (6-4) 1050.6 points
#6. Meyers’ Cowboys (6-4) 1047.4 points
~~~~~~~~~~Playoff Cut Line~~~~~~~~~~
#7. A’s Bengals (5-5) 1136.5 points
#8. Gideon’s Bears (5-5) 1037.2 points
#9. Harshbarger’s Chargers (5-5) 919 points
#10. O’Neill’s Buccaneers (4-6) 1062.5 points
#11. Yelen’s Texans (4-6) 841.9 points
#12. Dincher’s Dolphins (3-7) 1089.2 points
#13. Travelpiece’s 49ers (3-7) 1013.5 points
#14. Damn’s Bills (3-7) 823.2 points
Four games left in the regular season, and the last place team could still technically finish in first place. As is usually the case for us at this point in the season, it’s looking like 8 may be the magic number to get into the playoffs, so even if you’re sitting at .500, you’re still in pretty decent shape. Since we’ve reached the point in the season where every game is critical for everyone, I thought about doing the same thing as I did last year by adding 1 game to each category, but I’m going to wait 1 more week.
********Games of the Week********
~~~~~~~~Blowout of the Week~~~~~~~~
Duncan’s Packers (6-4) over Travelpiece’s 49ers (3-7)
Projected Line-ups:
GB: Young, Benson, Mendenhall, M. Williams, Austin, Boldin, Gates, Titans D, Rackers
Vs.
SF: Kitna, Best, Green-Ellis, Mason, Ochocinco, Lloyd, Boss, 49ers D, Gould
He’s not going to be happy with me for picking him to win the blowout, especially since the person I predicted to win the blowout last week ended up scoring 21 less points than anyone else in the league, and also since I decided to pick him here only because I have to pick a blowout game and this is the one I hated the least, but this pick is all about the match-ups. Each of Travelpiece’s 3 wide receivers are going up against a top 7 defense while Duncan’s quarterback and 2 running backs are going up against defenses that can’t stop anyone. If Gates is able to go this week, I’ll feel an awful lot better about this pick, but either way, I’m fairly confident Duncan’s team should win comfortably.
Final score: GB 129-102.
~~~~~~~~Upset of the Week~~~~~~~~
A’s Bengals (5-5) over Miller’s Chiefs (7-3)
Projected Line-ups:
Cin: Brees, Tomlinson, Addai, Wayne, Harvin, R. White, V. Davis, Packers D, Longwell
Vs.
KC: Flacco, Foster, Moreno, Garcon, Bowe, Fitzgerald, Gresham, Jets D, Bryant
It’s not just in the NFL that my Upset picks have been incredible this year; my upset picks in our league are 8-1 thus far, so either my 6 game winning streak or my recent roll with upset picks is going to come to end. Here’s why I think it’ll be the former of the two…
5 Reasons:
#1. Drew Brees vs. Seattle.
I’ll even leave Jay Cutler’s below average performance in this statistic, but if you take out the games against Alex Smith and Derek Anderson/Max Hall, because counting them as quarterbacks is like counting fruit by the foot as a daily serving of fruit, Seattle is allowing opposing quarterbacks to throw for 323.5 yards, 1.83 TD, and 0.5 INT per game. Brees still hasn’t had one of those amazing fantasy games we came to expect from him once in a while last season and I’m starting to wonder if we’ll see any games like that this season, but I certainly wouldn’t be surprised to see him go for 330 yards and 4 TDs this weekend.
#2. Dwayne Bowe can’t possibly keep this up.
He’s averaging 90.8 yards and 1.8 TDs per game for the past 5 weeks, but I really don’t think he’s THAT good. Last week’s game against Denver was an anomaly, and as a Chiefs fan, I sincerely hope we never see Matt Cassel’s number of passing attempts more than double the team’s rushing attempts again, though I’ll certainly be thankful if last week’s garbage time performance causes teams to actually respect the passing game and open up the rushing game. I realize Arizona has been pretty pathetic against the pass, but considering KC only has one legitimate wide receiver, I suspect the Cards will have Rodgers-Cromartie blanket Bowe while Antrel Rolle provides support over the top. If my boys are going to win, they’re going to have to take advantage of a Cardinals rush defense that’s 28th in the league in rushing yards allowed and tied for 30th in the league in rushing touchdowns allowed. If there’s any passing attack at all, I assume it will come in the form of Tony Moeaki and screen/short passes to Charles and Jones. Long story short, Bowe will have a mediocre game at best.
#3. Reggie Wayne vs. New England…and Austin Collie?
Wayne hasn’t missed a game since 2003, so I’m not too concerned/hopeful about his questionable designation at this point in the week. Similar to what I wrote about Tom Brady last week, reports of Reggie Wayne’s demise have been greatly exaggerated. He’s 2nd in the league in receptions, 4th in targets, and 5th in yards. The main thing that determines whether or not he plays well is whether or not Austin Collie is on the field. Jeremy Maclin plays much better when Desean Jackson is on the field, and the same is the case for Reggie Wayne when Austin Collie is on the field. He hasn’t exactly had a fruitful career against the Patriots, but if Collie is back in action, I expect big things from Wayne this weekend.
#4. Joe Flacco vs. the Panthers.
Believe it or not, Carolina has not allowed an opposing QB to register 25 fantasy points in a game yet this season, and I just don’t feel good about this match up. Flacco has been very Freeman-ish in that he doesn’t lose games for his team (except for that 4 interception game against the Bengals), and he doesn’t win games for your fantasy team so much as he consistently puts up slightly above average numbers to at least give you a chance to win. Well, Freeman didn’t exactly light up the Panthers in his 2 games against them, and the Ravens are much more of a run first team than the Buccaneers, so I expect Flacco’s numbers will be even less stellar than Freeman’s 22 point games against the Panthers have been.
#5. Roddy White.
Do I really need to say anything else? Dude’s been amazing.
X-Factor: Can Joseph Addai “shoulder” the load?
With the exception of Addai, everyone in Kauffman’s starting line-up is ranked in the top 9 at their respective position, including the #1 defense, #1 kicker, and #2 tight end; a trio which is a much bigger deal than most would give it credit for since it virtually handicaps him 10-15 points in any given week in the QB/RB/WR match-ups. The last time Kauffman and I faced each other, Addai and Tomlinson each had what still stands as their best performance of the season, and the Addai performance really came out of nowhere considering he didn’t even score 5 points the previous week. Well, it’s now been over a month since Joseph Addai was even on the field, so it would really be a surprise if he plays and has a great game. If he gets on the field, Addai has averaged 57 rushing yards, 31 receiving yards, and 1 TD in 5 career games against the Patriots, and in most of those games, the Patriots rushing defense was much more formidable. If Addai misses his 4th consecutive game with a shoulder injury, Kauffman will either have to play Jerome Harrison or try to pick up and play Keiland Williams, neither of which could possibly perform as well as they did this past Monday.
Final score: With expected poor performances from Flacco and Bowe and with my best running back playing against my only defense, there’s almost no chance I have another type of week that has led me to the top of our standings and the top of the points scored category. Meanwhile, Kauffman’s team should score in bunches whether or not Addai plays. Score: Cin 141-106.
~~~~~~~~Game of the Week~~~~~~~~
Dincher’s Dolphins (3-7) vs. O’Neill’s Buccaneers (4-6)
Projected Line-ups:
Mia: Manning, Peterson, Jones-Drew, M. Williams, Floyd, Gaffney, Heap, Browns D, Carpenter
Vs.
TB: Rivers, Charles, Hillis, Edwards, R. Moss, S. Moss, Tamme, Falcons D, Tynes
Two teams in the Bottom 5 in the standings? Why the hell is this the game of the week? I’m glad you asked. These guys are at the bottom of the standings, but they’re #4 and #6 in points scored, respectively. One of these 2 teams is going to win out and make the playoffs. It happens every season in our league, and I would strongly prefer not to face any of them in a one and done format. Not only do I suspect the winner will make a run to the playoffs, but it’s pretty apparent that the loser is all but eliminated from contention, so this is a huge game (as opposed to the other battle between 3-7 and 4-6 teams, which is basically a battle for last place).
Breakdown:
QB: How am I supposed to choose between Peyton Manning and Philip Rivers? You might as well be asking whether I’d rather have a million dollars or a million dollars. I’ll take Rivers because he’s the guy at home in a prime-time must-win game, but it’s possible that both quarterbacks put up 35 points this week. Slight edge: O’Neill.
RB: (I’ll start out with a tangent. Thomas Jones is terrible. As Chiefs fans, O’Neill and I got whiff of this fact several weeks before most people, including Todd Haley and Charlie Weis. He continues to play because he’s loved in the locker room for his work ethic and his leadership skills, but it’s become apparent at this point that Jamaal Charles is the significantly better running back, and would probably be a top 3 fantasy guy if he were getting more than 45% of the touches, kind of like Beanie Wells vs. Tim Hightower last season. But until it becomes more obvious to more people that Charles is in charge, O’Neill feels an obligation to begrudgingly keep both guys in his line-up for fear that Jones gets the goal line touches (and inevitably gets stuffed 4 times in a row). Personally, I would start the Moss posse at WR and Braylon Edwards at the flex and put Thomas Jones on the bench. I understand it’s safer to play both running backs because you know that Jones is going to get his touches and there’s no guarantee that Edwards even gets a target. Here’s my view though: if Thomas Jones has a terrible game and you start him, it kills your fantasy team and probably your favorite team as well. If you bench him and he has a great game, at least you can take solace in the fact that the Chiefs should win the game. Back to the breakdown.) I love Jamaal Charles against the worst fantasy rushing defense in the league, and Peyton Hillis is a fucking monster. He’s the only back in the league to score 12 or more fantasy points in every game this season. Meanwhile, Dincher has two of the three running backs who were most coveted going into the season and are still among the best running backs in the league, but they’re going against a pair of tough rush defenses. Peterson and MJD have each had 3 really solid performances in their past 4 games, and they are arguably the most consistent fantasy running backs of the past few seasons, so I suspect they’ll more than hold their own against the tough defenses, but in this particular week, I’d rather have the guys who aren’t necessarily household names. Edge: O’Neill.
WR: Dincher has three no-name guys playing against really good pass defenses, while if he takes my advice, O’Neill would be playing a couple of Mosses and a Braylon Edwards, 2 of which are going against awful pass defenses. I’m going to argue that since I think Washington, Denver, and Seattle will be playing from behind all game, their receivers should get a lot of looks and will at least put up numbers that are comparable to Randy Moss’s and Braylon Edwards’s huge games. Edge: O’Neill.
TE/Def: Jacob Tamme is the best tight end in the league since taking over for Dallas Clark, and I expect the Bears and Dolphins to score under 40 on Thursday night which bodes well for the Dolphins D. Todd Heap has been one of the best tight ends in the league in the past 5 weeks, but I think the Browns/Jaguars game is going to be one of those weird slugfests that we see every now and then between two teams who aren’t considered offensive juggernauts, so I can’t feel too good about Dincher’s defense. Edge: O’Neill
Outcome: Looks like I have O’Neill winning in every category, and considering he’s a game ahead of Dincher in the standings, he was already the favorite to make a late season run to the playoffs, so look out NFC: between Garland and O’Neill making late season runs, the top 6 teams in that conference are going to really be beating each other up to the point that a third AFC team might be able to sneak into the playoffs, even though it is clearly the inferior conference. Final score: TB 137-108.
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