Alumni Battle: Which College Would Put Together the Best NBA Team?

Leave a comment

While attending a Clippers/Wizards game this past weekend, a buddy of mine posed the following question: Can you imagine how good Kentucky would be if they still had John Wall and Eric Bledsoe? Roughly 45 seconds into our four-man four-hour discussion, it was obvious that this needed to be researched and compiled into an article.

 

I’m not usually a fan of impractical debates – I would much rather argue about NCAA Bubble teams, fantasy football sleepers, or who is the greatest player/team of all time – but given the time of year, I found myself getting hopelessly sucked into this one.

 

The concept is pretty simple: if current NBA players teamed up based on the college that they “graduated” from, which school would make the best all-around team? Obviously, this debate excludes the Kobes and LeBrons of the world who went straight from high school to the pros.

 

Also, in order to qualify for the debate, you have to at least be able to put together a five man roster. Unfortunately, that excludes guys like Stephen Curry and Steve Nash, because they would single-handedly be representing Davidson and Santa Clara.

 

After combing through NBA rosters for over an hour, I was left with 19 colleges that met the specifications. Stick with me through the first few half-hearted slides. I saved my more long-winded breakdowns for the top twelve schools. Going from worst to best, what follows is how I would rank those teams.

 

#19. USC

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

SG: DeMar DeRozan

SG: Nick Young

SG: OJ Mayo

F: Taj Gibson

PF: Brian Scalabrine

 

Bench: None

 

Ignoring the fact that their inability to field a bench player would require Big Red to be their center for the entirety of the game, you get the feeling that within one quarter of playing together, DeRozan, Young, and Mayo would get in a three way fist fight over who gets to be the primary ball handler. I’m sure they would be fun to watch, but their complete lack of height and depth makes them the lowest ranked team.

 

 

#18. Stanford

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

G: Landry Fields

SG: Josh Childress

C: Brook Lopez

C: Robin Lopez

C: Jason Collins

 

Bench: Jarron Collins – C.

 

In terms of size and scoring threats, Stanford would be USC’s polar opposite, but I can’t in good faith rank the Lopez twins behind Brian Scalabrine. The Trojans would probably shoot threes 80% of the time and maybe hit 40% of them, but the Cardinal would just lob it inside again and again, taking 90% of their shots from inside the paint, and making 90% of them. Nothing fancy about their game, but you can never have too many seven-footers.

 

 

#17. Marquette

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

SG: Dwyane Wade

G: Wesley Matthews

G: Jerel McNeal

SF: Steve Novak

F: Lazar Hayward

 

Bench: None.

 

If Wade and Matthews had anything on the bench, or so much as a supporting cast better than the Tin Man, the Scarecrow, and the Cowardly Lion, the Golden Eagles would be seeded much higher than this. As it is, I find it hard to imagine that two shooting guards could carry a team to many victories, even if one of those shooting guards is arguably the greatest player in this entire discussion.

 

 

#16. Ohio State

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Mike Conley

SG: Michael Redd

SG: Daequan Cook

SG: Evan Turner

C: Kosta Koufos

 

Bench: Byron Mullens – C.

 

Permanent Injured Reserve: Greg Oden – C.

 

Even if you wanted to pretend that Greg Oden is healthy for this hypothetical tournament, the Buckeyes would still be completely void of forwards. A good center and four oversized guards might work at the collegiate level, but in most NBA games, a 6’9” forward would be hitting ten foot jumpers over Turner and Redd all night.

 

 

#15. Washington

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Nate Robinson

SG: Brandon Roy

SF: Quincy Pondexter

F: Jon Brockman

C: Spencer Hawes

 

Bench: None.

 

Finally, we have a traditional starting line-up! We know Brandon Roy is incredibly talented, and we know Nate Robinson is incredibly spunky. Say what you will about the three big guys, but I think they’re all talented guys who still have developing to do at the professional level. They may have less recognizable names than most of the bigger schools, but thus far, the Huskies would have the most complete team that we’ve seen.

 

 

#14. Georgia Tech

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Jarrett Jack

PG: Will Bynum

SG: Anthony Morrow

F: Thaddeus Young

PF: Chris Bosh

 

Bench: Gani Lawal – F. Derrick Favors – PF.

 

Favors has an incredibly bright future in the NBA, but the argument is who would put the best looking team on the floor tonight. Therefore I have to ask: Aside from Chris Bosh – who just spent the last seven years proving to us that he can’t single-handedly carry a team to relevance – is there anything you really like about this team? At best, the rest of the starting line-up is slightly above average at their respective positions.

 

Personally, I think Jarrett Jack could be a special talent if he wasn’t behind Chris Paul on the Hornets’ depth chart, but for the time being, it’s tough to argue that the Yellow Jackets would actually be able to accomplish more on the court than the rest of the teams ahead of them.

 

 

#13. Memphis

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Derrick Rose

G: Tyreke Evans

SF: Chris Douglas-Roberts

SF: Shawne Williams

PF: Earl Barron

 

Bench: Joey Dorsey – PF. Elliot Williams – G.

 

It pains me to seed the MVP-in-the-making this low, but as was the case for Dwyane Wade and Marquette, after the superstar’s above average sidekick at the guard position, there isn’t a whole lot to be desired. CDR showed an occasional flash of brilliance during his days with the Nets, but that’s about it.

 

In other news, Rose, Evans, and Williams would have carried Memphis to an undefeated season this year if it weren’t for the one and done phenomenon. And people have the audacity to wonder why college basketball isn’t what it used to be.

 

 

#12. Kansas

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

G: Kirk Hinrich

SG: Brandon Rush

SF: Paul Pierce

PF: Drew Gooden

PF: Nick Collison

 

Bench: Mario Chalmers – PG. Xavier Henry – SG. Julian Wright – SF. Darrell Arthur – PF. Darnell Jackson – PF. Cole Aldrich – C.

 

There’s an awful lot of depth on this Jayhawk squad, but, in my opinion, not all that much quality. Without a doubt, Paul Pierce is one of the best and most underappreciated guys in the NBA in the past decade, and he would certainly add that “it” factor that every good team needs in order to be great.

However, PP’s starting to get up there in years, and on the other end of the spectrum it feels like their entire bench has been in the NBA for all of thirty seconds.

 

Gooden is still a quality forward, but it feels like Collison never gained nearly the relevance in the NBA that he had in college, Rush hasn’t really emerged in the league yet, and I’ve always thought that Kirk Hinrich was in a constant state of flux between the 1- and 2-guard positions.

 

Seriously, I’m willing to bet that if I asked a hundred NBA fans, thirty would say Hinrich is a shooting guard, thirty would say he’s a point guard, and the rest would decide he’s a hybrid guard or something of the sort. I also bet that out of those hundred people, none of them would say he’s in the top 25 in the league at whichever position that decide he plays.

 

 

#11. Syracuse

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Jonny Flynn

SF: Carmelo Anthony

SF: Wesley Johnson

SF: Donte Greene

PF: Hakim Warrick

 

Bench: Andy Rautins – G. Etan Thomas – C.

 

Without doing another hour’s worth of research, I’m assuming that the Orange has the youngest team and that they would fly up and down the court faster than any other team on this list. Melo doesn’t quite have an all-star supporting cast, but it’s a slightly better-rounded group than Wade or Rose would receive.

 

Despite being relatively turnover prone thus far in his career, I see Jonny Flynn directing this cast better than “Inception” mastermind Christopher Nolan. And I think Hakim Warrick would play a good supporting role if he were finally placed on a roster with a lead actor.

 

Aside from the complete lack of quality depth, the main problem with this Syracuse squad is that Johnson and Greene didn’t spend enough time in college and are still in the development process in the NBA. I understand that staying in school isn’t cool anymore, but Donte Greene should be finishing up his senior year under Jim Boeheim rather than spending his third straight year obscurely wasting away in Sacramento.

 

This team is dripping with potential and Carmelo sauce, and would probably be near the top of this list after another year or two in the oven, but there are too many question marks to warrant putting this team in the top ten.

 

#10. Wake Forest

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Chris Paul

G: Jeff Teague

SF: Josh Howard

SF: Al-Farouq Aminu

C: Tim Duncan

 

Bench: Ishmael Smith – PG. James Johnson – SF. Darius Songaila – PF.

 

I don’t care how much it seems like Duncan has dropped off since last season, there’s no chance in hell the Chris Paul / Tim Duncan duo was missing the top ten. If there was a way to quantitatively measure Basketball IQ, you would be hard pressed to find higher scores than the ones that these two guys would record. Teague and Aminu haven’t amounted to much of anything yet, but if you put me on the floor with Paul and Duncan, I could probably score 10 ppg, and I never even played high school varsity hoops.

 

 

#9. LSU

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

G: Marcus Thornton

PF: Brandon Bass

PF: Tyrus Thomas

PF: Glen Davis

C: Shaquille O’Neal

 

Bench: Garrett Temple – G. Anthony Randolph – PF.

 

If only this debate was about guys at the height of their game. Unfortunately, LSU would be playing with 2011 Shaquille O’Neal, which is only good for a dozen minutes of slightly above average play from a big man on a good night.

 

Marcus Thornton is a good guard who is already rapidly evolving into a legitimate all-star, but I’m not fully convinced he would thrive as the only perimeter player on the roster.

 

Reservations about the guard and center aside, you have to love the three-headed monster of Bass/Thomas/Davis. One more threat at the guard position or five less years on Shaq’s odometer and the Tigers would be a top five team, even without much in terms of depth.

 

 

#8. Florida

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

SG: Corey Brewer

SG: Mike Miller

PF: David Lee

PF: Al Horford

C: Joakim Noah

 

Bench: Jason Williams – PG. Matt Bonner – PF. Udonis Haslem – PF. Marreese Speights – C.

 

Talk about quality height! I can’t remember any other time when Udonis Haslem would have been considered the fourth or fifth best big man on the team. In theory, Florida would outrebound most of the other teams on this list by at least a three to one margin.

 

Unfortunately, their own rebound to assist ratio would end up being roughly twenty to one. It’s a shame Jason Williams hasn’t been worth mentioning since 2008, because this Gator team is one quality ball distributor away from greatness.

 

 

#7. Duke

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

SG: JJ Redick

SF: Grant Hill

SF: Luol Deng

PF: Carlos Boozer

PF: Elton Brand

 

Bench: Chris Duhon – PG. Dahntay Jones – SG. Gerald Henderson – G. Mike Dunleavy – SF. Shane Battier – SF. Corey Maggette – SF. Josh McRoberts – PF. Shelden Williams – PF.

 

It would definitely increase Duke’s seed if we were including the coaches in seeding these teams, but unfortunately the carousels at some of these colleges makes that downright impossible. Krzyzewski’s leadership aside, the Dukies come in as the seventh best team despite having no one to fill the traditional one or five on the floor.

 

As a diehard Blue Devils fan, I wasn’t the least bit surprised to find a complete lack of serviceable point guards on this list, considering our best point guards of the past twenty years are either coaching or still recovering from career shattering motorcycle accidents.

 

The lack of a pure center was not too shocking either, as I still wake up at night in cold sweats following visions of Nick Horvath, Eric Meek, Taymon Domzalski, and Greg Newton walking to the scorer’s table in crunch time.

 

But if you think highly of power forwards who have the ability to hit short jumpers or perimeter threats who would walk through fire to take a charge, then this is definitely the squad for you!

 

 

#6. Texas

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: DJ Augustin

SG: Daniel Gibson

SF: Maurice Evans

SF: Kevin Durant

PF: LaMarcus Aldridge

 

Bench: TJ Ford – PG. Royal Ivey – PG. Avery Bradley – SG. Damion James – SF. Dexter Pittman – C.

 

If only that fifth man was better than Maurice Evans / Damion James! DJ Augustin is certainly no Russell Westbrook, but Kendrick Perkins is no LaMarcus Aldridge. If the Thunder have the sixth best team in the NBA, the Longhorns would certainly have the sixth best team in this argument, even without a fifth quality player.

 

 

#5. North Carolina

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Raymond Felton

SG: Vince Carter

SF: Marvin Williams

PF: Antawn Jamison

C: Brendan Haywood

 

Bench: Ty Lawson – PG. Wayne Ellington – G. Brandon Wright – PF. Ed Davis – PF. Tyler Hansbrough – PF.

 

The 2010-11 per 48 minute statistics for the starting five on this Tar Heels team adds up to 99.2 points, 42.5 rebounds, and 19.8 assists per game. The 2010-11 Miami Heat average 101.7 points, 42.4 rebounds, and 19.6 assists per game.

 

So why am I not more blown away by UNC? Because Carter and Haywood don’t play anywhere near 48 minutes per game. They could play with absolutely anyone for the first 15-20 minutes, but eventually Wayne Ellington and Tyler Hansbrough are going to end up in the game, and that’s where the teams ranked ahead of them would be able to capitalize.

 

Not to mention, Brendan Haywood has never been an ideal big man, and he’s now serving his tenth year in the association. So long as he’s seven feet tall and can jog up and down the court, he’ll have a job somewhere, but as was the case with Kirk Hinrich, there are at least 25 guys at his position that you would rather have on your team.

 

Much like Syracuse, North Carolina fields a team that would almost certainly be better a few years from now when the three forwards on the bench and the Lawson/Felton duo have reached their full potential. I have a feeling I’m undervaluing them because I can already see they’d be better in the future, but the Tar Heels would easily be the best “long-odds” team to put your pennies on if these schools were playing in a tournament.

 

 

#4. Arizona

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Gilbert Arenas

SG: Jason Terry

SG: Andre Iguodala

SF: Richard Jefferson

C: Channing Frye

 

Bench: Mike Bibby – PG. Jerryd Bayless – PG. Mustafa Shakur – PG. Chase Budinger – SF. Luke Walton – SF. Jordan Hill – F.

 

To be perfectly honest, this is the one team in the top twelve that I hadn’t thought of before doing the research – probably because every member of its theoretical starting five was already in the league before I graduated from high school – but it turns out they would field a pretty solid team.

 

Most likely, no one blows you away in a good way, but more importantly, no one blows you away in a bad way. As we enter the Final Four, we’re finally blessed with breaking down teams without any real weakness. Sure, they’re the definition of slightly above average across the board, but a chain is only as strong as its weakest link. Even as guys like Jefferson, Terry, and Arenas enter into into the denouement of their career, this starting five is easily the strongest chain we’ve encountered yet, and it’s hard to argue with Jerryd Bayless and Chase Budinger coming off the bench.

 

 

#3. UCLA

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Baron Davis

PG: Darren Collison

SG: Russell Westbrook

SF: Trevor Ariza

PF: Kevin Love

 

Bench: Jordan Farmar – PG. Earl Watson – PG. Jrue Holliday – PG. Aaron Afflalo – SG. Jason Kapono – SF. Matt Barnes – SF. Luc Richard Mbah a Boute – SF, Ryan Hollins – C. Dan Gadzuric – C.

 

For the purposes of this argument, I’m assuming Baron Davis would be happy and competitive on this team, as opposed to being the Baron Davis who plays like he’s been chain-swallow twinkies during TV timeouts when he’s unhappy.

 

Considering they played in three consecutive Final Fours from 2006-08, it’s not surprising to see how deep this team runs with guys who have been in the league for less than half a decade. (Speaking of which, I still can’t believe Russell Westbrook and Kevin Love lost to Memphis in 2008.)

 

Despite how impeccable their guard play would be, and despite how well Kevin Love fills the lane and crashes the boards, I fear this team would just be a little too small to hang with the big boys.

 

 

#2. Kentucky

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

PG: Rajon Rondo

PG: John Wall

SF: Tayshaun Prince

PF: DeMarcus Cousins

C: Chuck Hayes

 

Bench: Eric Bledsoe – PG. Keith Bogans – SG. Jodie Meeks – G. Daniel Orton – PF. Patrick Patterson – PF. Jamaal Magloire – C. Nazr Mohammed – C.

 

I debated putting the Wildcats anywhere between #1 and #6 before finally settling on this spot. Maybe I was a little too excited about the prospect of seeing two of the three best point guards in the Eastern Conference on the same team, but I think my gaiety is justified. Andray Blatche wouldn’t even start on most teams, but with John Wall he’s averaging 16 points per game. Imagine what he could do for guys like Prince and Cousins!

 

Even better, with Rondo at the helm, Wall would be able to fully embrace the scorer within. The double R may have one of the worst jump shots in the league, but he still routinely scores in double figures while creating countless opportunities for those around him.

 

How do you game plan against this team? We haven’t even yet mentioned that Rondo and Prince are members of all-NBA defensive teams and that Chuck Hayes arguably should be on one as well, and it was already difficult to imagine putting together a more solid team than this.

 

You can’t score against them and you can’t stop them from scoring. So why aren’t they ranked #1?

 

I would argue that the quality of Kentucky’s bench doesn’t even remotely compare to the bench of the #1 team, which would frankly put together a top ten team from its reserves. Aside from that, trying to separate the top half dozen teams has been like splitting hairs.

 

 

#1. Connecticut

 

Starting Line-Up:

 

SG: Ray Allen

SG: Richard Hamilton

SF: Caron Butler

SF: Rudy Gay

C: Emeka Okafor

 

Bench: Ben Gordon – SG. AJ Price – G. Jeff Adrien – F. Charlie Villanueva – PF. Hilton Armstrong – C. Hasheem Thabeet – C.

 

The Huskies are easily the most well-rounded, battle-tested team in this debate. Like Arizona, there’s no one that particularly blows you away, but in this case, the entire starting line-up and the first two guys off the bench (Gordon and Villanueva) are all considerably above average at their position.

 

Using the same theory that I used for North Carolina, the starting five on this team would average 111.6 points per game, but unlike the Tar Heels, there’s more than enough quality depth on UConn’s bench to keep from necessitating anywhere near that much play from any individual player.

 

I’m sure fans of the other 18 schools will argue that the lack of a true point guard should eliminate them from consideration for the #1 overall seed, but I guarantee Ray Allen could make do. Aside from a handful of guys like Rondo, Nash, and Calderon, the sport is gravitating away from the pass-first point guard anyway. Just look at the player of the year candidates in the college game this year: Walker, Smith, and Fredette are the primary ball-handler as well as primary scorer for each of their respective schools.

 

As I previously argued, Chris Paul and Tim Duncan would bring a lot of basketball IQ to Wake Forest’s team, but I strongly doubt you could find a starting five with a higher average BB IQ than this Connecticut group.

 

Maybe they would get knocked out of a March Madness type of tournament, but in a best-of-7 series, I’m taking Connecticut over every other college.

 

Dancing Dozen: What These 25 Teams Need to Do to Grab the Last 12 At-Large Bids.

Leave a comment

For 25 teams desperately wanting to play Cinderella this year, there are roughly 72 hours before the clock strikes midnight and their carriage turns into an NIT-bound pumpkin.

 

Before I bore you with the Bubble Math that everyone skips right past anyway, I’ll let you know that I will be eliminating 2-3 teams per day on twitter (@kerrancejames) until we’re left with the field of 68. I’ve been doing this since February 8th, and I’ve done this for each of the past two seasons, in each of which I ended up correctly predicting all but one team that made it into the tournament.

 

If you’re looking for a certain team and you can’t find them on this list, you can safely assume they are already a lock or have already been eliminated. If you’re not sure whether your team has been locked or eliminated, your time would be better spent re-evaluating their resume, but you could also ask me via comment or twitter.

 

There are 33 teams that I have already decided are locks to make the tournament. Eight of those teams should end up receiving the automatic berth by winning their conference tournament. Emphasis on “should.” For every Utah, Oklahoma, and Virginia that inexplicably wins their conference championship, another bubble bursts.

 

Assuming eight of those teams actually do win their conference tournament, 25 of the 37 at-large bids have already gone to teams that are considered locks. My spreadsheet indicates 25 teams left fighting for the last 12 at-large bids. Below, you’ll find what each of them needs to do in order to fit into a glass slipper.

 

 

Teams Who Just Need to Avoid Disaster:

 

UCLA

(22-9, 13-5 in Pac-10, 13-3 in last 16.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. BYU, vs. Arizona, vs. St. John’s.

Three Worst Losses: Vs. Montana, vs. Virginia Commonwealth, @ California.

 

Washington

(20-10, 11-7 in Pac-10, 5-6 in last 11.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Arizona, swept UCLA, @ USC.

Three Worst Losses: Swept by Washington State, @ Oregon State, @ Oregon.

 

As was the case last year, the Pac-10 seems to have collectively limped its way into March. I think the Bruins are in great shape, and probably just need to show up against Oregon tonight in order to guarantee a tournament invite; something that looked extremely improbable when they started the season 3-4.

 

Washington has easily been one of the most enjoyable teams to watch this season, and it would be a crying shame if they were unable to play on the grand stage. They are one of the most fast-paced teams in the nation, but I’m willing to bet that a lot of my fellow east-coasters can only recall one highlight from a Washington game, and that’s the one with Derrick Williams swatting Darnell Grant’s last second shot into the 27th row. With a win over Washington State tonight (a game that will likely end at around 2:00 AM EST), the Huskies can rest assured that they will sneak into the field for a 2nd straight year. A loss will leave things severely up in the air, especially if Wazzu, USC, or Cal can make a deep run in this conference tourney, because it’s unlikely that the Pac-10 gets four bids this year, and Washington would be the odd man out.

 

 

Illinois

(19-12, 9-9 in Big 10, 6-9 in last 15.)

Three Best Wins: vs. Wisconsin, vs. North Carolina, @ Minnesota.

Three Worst Losses: vs. Illinois-Chicago, @ Indiana, @ Northwestern.

 

Michigan

(19-12, 9-9 in Big 10, 8-3 in last 11.)

Three Best Wins: @ Michigan State, @ Clemson, @ Minnesota.

Three Worst Losses: vs. UTEP, @ Indiana, @ Northwestern.

 

The Illini and Wolverines face off against each other in the 2nd round of the Big Ten tournament. Regardless of what you think of their resumes, in this particular season, I think we can all agree that the winner of that game will lock up a spot in the Big Dance while the loser likely sweats out Selection Sunday.

 

In my mind, Michigan needs this game way more than Illinois does. If fellow bubble teams Michigan State, Clemson, and Penn State  all fail to make the tournament, Michigan will end up having only one win over a tourney-bound team (Oakland)…maybe a 2nd one if Harvard beats Princeton on Saturday, but I think you get the point. The best thing about Michigan’s resume right now is that they’re actually winning games down the stretch, which not very many other teams on this watch can claim as fact.

 

Illinois has been struggling to say the least, but at least they can point to wins over highly touted teams like Wisconsin and North Carolina. That being said, I’m sure the committee won’t be too thrilled if they finish the season losing ten out of sixteen, and also have a HORRIBLE loss to Illinois-Chicago.

 

Nevertheless, the formula is simple for both of these teams: win one game and you’re in.

 

 

Richmond

(24-7, 13-3 in A-10, 11-2 in last 13.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Purdue, vs. Virginia Commonwealth, @ Duquesne.

Three Worst Losses: Vs. Bucknell, @ Iona, vs. Georgia Tech.

 

Richmond has quietly put together a solid resume, and could almost assuredly even stomach a loss to Rhode Island on Friday on its way to the field of 68. Aside from that November win over Purdue, there isn’t too much meat in the wins category, but 13-3 in the A-10 is nothing to scoff at. If you ask me, they’re pretty much a lock to lose in the first round of the tournament, but they’re also pretty much a lock to get there.

 

Clemson

(20-10, 9-7 in ACC, 7-6 in last 13.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Florida State, @ Miami, vs. Virginia Tech.

Three Worst Losses: @ Virginia, @ North Carolina State, vs. Michigan.

 

As mediocre as the middle of the pack may be, you know the ACC is going to send at least four teams to the tournament, and for the time being, Clemson holds that golden ticket. There’s nothing to love or hate about their resume, unless you choose to love or hate the complete lack of signature wins or detrimental losses. Odds are their game against Boston College in the 2nd round of the ACC tourney will have the same consequences as the Illinois/Michigan game in the Big Ten, but considering they hold the regular season victory over BC, I like Clemson’s chances.

Utah State

(28-3, 15-1 in WAC, 23-1 in last 24.)

Three Best Wins: @ Saint Mary’s, @ Boise State, @ Hawaii.

Three Worst Losses: @ Idaho, @ Georgetown, @ BYU.

 

A USU loss in the WAC tournament would be a disaster for at least a dozen teams, including itself.
All I see on their resume is one good win, one ugly loss, and four months of otherwise non-impactful wins and losses. Before their BracketBusters win at Saint Mary’s, we were all but ready to write them off as needing to win their conference tournament to get in. I would strongly prefer it if they just went ahead and won the damn thing, but I’d be lying if I didn’t say I’m curious to see what would happen if they lost.

 

Teams Squarely on the Bubble:

 

Georgia

(20-10, 9-7 in SEC, 6-4 in last 10.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Kentucky, @ Tennessee, vs. Colorado.

Three Worst Losses: @ Alabama, Vs. Tennessee, vs. Xavier

 

Alabama

(20-10, 12-4 in SEC, 10-4 in last 14.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Kentucky, @ Tennessee, @ Mississippi State.

Three Worst Losses: Vs. Saint Peter’s, vs. Iowa, vs. Seton Hall.

 

If Georgia can take care of Auburn this afternoon, the Bulldogs and Crimson Tide are slated to face off again for the 2nd time in less than a week. See: Illinois/Michigan or Clemson/Boston College for how I expect the result of that game to impact their selection status. Considering the SEC tourney is being played in Georgia, they should be able to take care of business.

Virginia Tech

(19-10, 9-7 in ACC, 9-5 in last 14.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Duke, vs. Florida State, vs. Penn State.

Three Worst Losses: Swept by Virginia, @ Georgia Tech, swept by Boston College.

 

Ho hum. Virginia Tech is trying to play its way out of the tournament again. They really can’t afford to lose to Georgia Tech today, and they’d sleep a lot better on Selection Sunday Eve if they were able to knock off Florida State in the 2nd round. Having been swept by BC in the regular season, they’ll probably have to make it further than the Eagles do, considering six bids for the ACC seems a little absurd this year.

Colorado

(20-12, 8-8 in Big 12, 6-8 in last 14.)

Three Best Wins: vs. Texas, vs. Missouri, swept Kansas State.

Three Worst Losses: @ San Francisco, @ Harvard, @ Iowa State.

 

By narrowly beating Iowa State yesterday, Colorado kept its hopes alive, which is something that cannot be said for Nebraska or Baylor after crushing defeats. They have been so close to playing their way out so many times, but with those wins over Texas, Missouri, and a regular season sweep of Kansas State, I find it hard to believe that the committee would leave out Colorado while sending a similarly middling resume such as Michigan’s to the tournament.

Michigan State

(17-13, 9-9 in Big 10, 5-8 in last 13.)

Three Best Wins: vs. Wisconsin, vs. Washington, swept Minnesota.

Three Worst Losses: @ Iowa, vs. Michigan, @ Penn State.

 

From being ranked 2nd in the preseason to holding on for dear life, I don’t think anyone saw this kind of season coming for Sparty. You can’t ever count out Izzo, though. It might have to come earlier than usual, but MSU always ends up winning a few more games than you expect them to in March. I wouldn’t be surprised to see them get through Iowa and Purdue, which would be good news for them, because they just might need both games to get in.

 

Teams Who Still Need Help:

 

Boston College

(19-11, 9-7 in ACC, 6-7 in last 13.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Texas A&M, @ Virginia Tech, vs. Providence.

Three Worst Losses: Vs. Yale, vs. Harvard, swept by Miami.

 

They may have a record extremely similar to that of Virginia Tech, and they may have swept the Hokies in the regular season, but I think they’re worse off / more desperate. At least Virginia Tech has a gigantically quality win over Duke. When I look at Boston College’s resume, I feel like I’m looking at Richmond’s, only with significantly more losses. The Eagles had one quality win way back in November, and since then have gone 0-4 against the best teams in the ACC. Needless to say, if they drop this first round game against Wake Forest, they are NIT-bound. I think they absolutely have to beat Clemson to go dancing, and might even need to knock off UNC to feel really safe.

Oklahoma State

(19-12, 6-10 in Big 12, 5-8 in last 13.)

Three Best Wins: vs. Missouri, vs. Kansas State, vs. Alabama.

Three Worst Losses: vs. Virginia Tech, @ Texas Tech, @ Oklahoma.

 

The loss to Oklahoma to close the season was somewhat catastrophic, but they could more than make up for it with a win over Kansas today. Their conference record is a huge blemish on the resume, but if they add a win over the Jayhawks, there are definitely worse 20-12 resumes out there still in consideration. A loss today would certainly end their season though.

Colorado State

(19-11, 9-7 in MWC, 4-5 in last 9.)

Three Best Wins: @ UNLV, vs. Southern Mississippi, vs. New Mexico.

Three Worst Losses: Vs. Sam Houston State, vs. Hampton, @ Air Force.

New Mexico

(20-11, 8-8 in MWC, 7-4 in last 11.)

Three Best Wins: @ BYU, vs. BYU, vs. Colorado State.

Three Worst Losses: @ Wyoming, swept by Utah, vs. Northern Iowa.

 

The formula is pretty simple for these Mountain West bubble teams: win the game against each other + beat BYU = go dancing. Unlike the Illinois/Michigan and Clemson/Boston College games, the loser can consider itself eliminated while the winner almost assuredly still has work to do.

UAB

(22-7, 12-4 in C-USA, 11-3 in last 14.)

Three Best Wins: @ Arkansas, vs. UTEP, vs. Virginia Commonwealth.

Three Worst Losses: @ Tulsa, vs. Southern Mississippi, @ Arizona State.

Memphis

(22-9, 10-6 in C-USA, 6-5 in last 11.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Gonzaga, @ UAB, swept Southern Mississippi.

Three Worst Losses: @ Rice, vs. Tulsa, @ Southern Methodist.

UTEP

(23-8, 11-5 in C-USA, 6-4 in last 10.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Michigan, vs. Memphis, vs. Texas Tech.

Three Worst Losses: @ East Carolina, vs. Central Florida, vs. Georgia Tech.

 

America’s conference is still looking a lot like a one-bid league, but with Big 12 teams dropping like flies and a bunch of other mediocre teams guaranteed to lose games today, it just might be possible that C-USA gets two bids if two of these three teams face off in the conference final. That’s still a long way from a reality, and depends heavily on UTEP getting there since Memphis and UAB would face each other in the semifinals, but it’s still a possibility.

Penn State

(16-13, 9-9 in Big 10, 6-7 in last 13.)

Three Best Wins: vs. Wisconsin, vs. Michigan State, @ Minnesota.

Three Worst Losses: vs. Maine, vs. Maryland, @ Mississippi.

 

I can’t believe it either, but the Nittany Lions still have an outside shot at an at-large bid. Sadly for Happy Valley, they are pretty abysmal away from home, so a deep run in Indianapolis is unlikely, but assuming it includes wins over Indiana, Wisconsin, and possibly Purdue, we might see a 19-14 team in the tournament.

Washington State

(19-11, 9-9 in Pac-10, 5-6 in last 11.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Gonzaga, swept Washington, vs. Baylor.

Three Worst Losses: @ Arizona State, vs. Stanford, vs. Butler.

USC

(18-13, 10-8 in Pac-10, 8-5 in last 13.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Texas, vs. Arizona, @ Tennessee.

Three Worst Losses: Vs. Rider, vs. Bradley, @ TCU.

 

For each of these middle-of-the-road Pac-10 darlings, it might take two more wins to get in, but it wouldn’t surprise me at all if both of them pulled it off. For Wazzu, it would result in a three game season sweep over Washington, which would have meant a lot more back in January, but it still counts for something. Beating UCLA after finishing off that sweep would certainly push them into the field. And if USC were to add a second win over Arizona to a resume that already features a win over Texas, they would also probably have enough firepower to sneak in.

Tennessee

(18-13, 8-8 in SEC, 3-6 in last 9.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. Pittsburgh, vs. Villanova, @ Vanderbilt.

Three Worst Losses: Vs. College of Charleston, vs. Oakland, vs. Charlotte.

 

The Volunteers just keep losing games, and that early season win over Villanova just keeps getting less and less valuable. They absolutely have to beat Arkansas tonight, and probably need to beat Florida tomorrow in order to have a realistic shot. But if you aren’t sleeping on Tom Izzo, then you aren’t sleeping on Bruce Pearl either.

Saint Mary’s

(24-8, 11-3 in WCC, 2-4 in last 6.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. St. John’s, @ Gonzaga, vs. Mississippi State.

Three Worst Losses: @ San Diego, @ Portland, vs. Gonzaga.

Virginia Commonwealth

(23-11, 12-6 CAA, 5-6 in last 11.)

Three Best Wins: Vs. UCLA, @ Old Dominion, @ Wichita State.

Three Worst Losses: @ Northeastern, @ Georgia State, @ South Florida.

 

Welcome to the prayer zone. Maybe you still like Missouri State or Coastal Carolina, but these are the two teams who have already been eliminated from their conference tournaments and need to hope beyond hope that a good number of teams on the bubble do the same in the very near future. Thanks to a better record and bigger wins, Saint Mary’s is in much better shape than VCU, but having lost four of their last six games, they can’t possibly feel too safe, no matter what Joey Brackets says about  their seeding. If VCU is able to sneak in, it wouldn’t be the first time the CAA sent three teams to the tournament, and last time that third team made a run all the way to the Final Four.